So, what happens in November?

Yesterday, I put forward my answer to the Obama problem:

I do not believe for one second that Obama or the Democratic party will necessarily bring all the change we need. No party stands for my bedrock principles all the time, principles like the rule of law, the balance of powers, the Constitution, civil liberties, opportunity for all, security through freedom, reduced corporate power, and responsible governance. Politicians will sell me out to get elected when they can get away with it, and I will sell them out to uphold these principles when I can get away with it.

As long as we don't stoop so low as to rationalize a candidate's political calculations, progressives can retain their authority while still supporting a center/center-left candidate.

But once Obama is elected, it's war. As I've said before, November is just the beginning.


So, what would that "war" look like? It's a complicated question, but Mike Lux has some answers [emphasis added]:
So given that I want Obama to succeed, does that give me pause about Jason's plan to be tough on Obama starting the day after he's elected? Well, not really, but I do think the progressive movement needs to have a sophisticated, multi-level strategy. I think progressives should, and very likely will, break into 3 types of players during an Obama administration.

1.    Going on the inside. I hope that the Obama team can be convinced to place as many genuine progressives in government jobs as possible.
2.    Friendly outsiders who are pushing them toward progressivism. These are the progressive organization people, bloggers, donors, and other activists who stay on the outside, and are generally friendly to, and supportive of the Obama team, who still gently push them to pick the progressive path as much as possible.
3.    Outsiders who bang away. Those organization people, bloggers, donors, and other activists who decide their best role is to aggressively bang away, who work day in and day out to hold Obama accountable.

I believe we are best served when we have lots of people in all 3 of these categories. A movement does not succeed without having all 3 kinds of people in place, each playing their part. The progressive things that did happen during the Clinton years came as a direct result of each of these 3 kinds of people playing a big role.

The key is that the folks in all these categories need to forge a constructive working relationship with each other. There will definitely be tensions between the three at times, but if they can respect each other in their different roles, good things will happen.


That's a tough balancing act, and it's going to take a lot of grit and coordination to get it done, but in my mind it's infinitely more easier than trying to pressure Obama in the general election.

With a first-past-the-post, plurality based voting system, two party tyranny rules. An activist's only real point of pressure to push candidates towards their agenda is during primaries. During the general election, unless you genuinely don't care which of the two party representatives gets elected, you have no choice but to help the "best of the worst" of your two choices.

Of course, the Democratic primary is over, so our real leverage against Obama is gone - unless you want to help McCain win.

However, if Obama is elected, working to push him towards progressive positions while he's in power allows for a much more nuanced strategy, as Mike highlights. More importantly, none of these options are winner-take-all. Progressives can hand Obama a genuine legislative defeat and not cost him the presidency or the Democrats both houses of Congress. If played correctly, progressives can flex their power and cause worried politicians to support progressive policies without severely damaging the Democratic brand to such an extent as to cause electoral problems.

To put it another way, it's war in November, but it's not indiscriminate war. It's a smart conflict calculated to bring progressive policies while maintaining electoral control.

J Ro's opinions are his own and do not represent any other organization or individual.



Display:


Voters have most leverate during elections (none / 0)

after that, politicians can ignore them with more impunity. If you want something, the time to pressure them is now.

The Democrats have grown so desperate to win a fourth presidential election in 11 years, they're willing to look the other way. Sad.


by catfish2 on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 04:18:06 PM EST

11 elections, not years (none / 0)

We head into the 11th presidential election in 40 years. To date, Democrats have only won three of those.


by catfish2 on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 05:01:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 11 elections, not years (none / 0)


In the last 19 elections, Democrats have won 10 and seem poised to win a couple more.
I don't know if Rethugs can overcome that.
by hawkseye on Sun Jun 29, 2008 at 07:31:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This is absolute nonsense (2.00 / 1)

Obama is going to immediately change the entire landscape of this country once elected.  Not because he's some sort of progressive Messiah, but because compared to the destructiveness, irresponsibility and lawlessness of 8 years of George Bush, the stain of those years will finally be washed away (to purloin a quote from "Recount").

Jimmy Carter took office under similar circumstances.  Outsider taking office to close the door on a dark chapter of executive lawlessness (Watergate, etc..).  By the end of his first term, he was drummed out of office by an empty suit Republican.  Why?  Because once we finally had the House, the Senate, and the White House controlled by our party, everybody wanted their pound of flesh.  Major Carter administration initiatives were blocked by congressional Dems (e.g. balanced budget...yeah, he was there before Bill Clinton).

We need to have some perspective here.  Holding Obama accountable means holding Congress accountable.  From his executive perch, Obama will be light years better than GWB and his crony government.  Will we disagree with some executive actions?  Absolutely.  But they will at least have been part of a deliberative process that doesn't shut out progressive values or voices.  The key question is what legislation Congress sends President Obama.  

Since President's don't have the power of the line item veto, President Obama will be forced to sign or veto any bill that comes his way.  Therefore, he needs to be sent the kind of policy that we all are striving for; health care for all, out of Iraq quickly, etc..)  But embarassing Obama is not going to get that policy done.  Embarassing Dems in Congress might.

We've seen just how powerful the Executive is when the Republican Party chooses to ignore our system of checks and balances.  We have one shot to undo that damage and I'm not convinced we get it done in one four year term.  This time, we can't have another Jimmy Carter drummed out of office with miniscule approval ratings.  We can't have another Bill Clinton, whose healthcare plan and other initiatives, blocked by a Dem Congress, led to 12 years of a Republican Congress.

Why is it that when we're in sight of the goal line, we always manage to start thinking about ways to screw it up.  Not this time.  Let's do it right this time.  Save the vitriol for after Obama's re-election, and "hold him accountable" in 2013.


by sfyoungdem on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 04:24:39 PM EST

Re: This is absolute nonsense (none / 0)

In the meantime, get more and better Dems elected to Congress.  Then we'll get the kind of progressive policy this nation needs and deserves.


by sfyoungdem on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 04:26:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This is absolute nonsense (2.00 / 1)

I agree with you that the Carter example should serve as a warning, but let's not hem ourselves in. There is middle ground between stonewalling everything the executive wants to get done (a la Carter) and proving our worth as a constituency.

Going too far in one direction would be disaster, but there is room for some of this kind of pressure in moderation.


The Seminal :: Independent Media & Politics
by J Ro on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 05:00:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama shouldn't have as much trouble (none / 0)

with Congress as Carter did.  A very large number of Democrats were Southern Democrats at that time, more conservative than Democrats as a whole.   Even the conservative Democrats who are left, tend to be moderate on the political spectrum.  

But the bigger point is filling the executive positions.  We need to get good people in powerful positions at Justice, State, Defense and the other cabinets.   This is where long term change will happen.  


by monkeyga on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 07:50:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Document Dump (none / 0)

Obama needs to make what Cheney and Bush were doing in secret very public.


by bakho on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 09:36:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This is absolute nonsense (none / 0)

Thank you very much for saying this!


by hawkseye on Sun Jun 29, 2008 at 07:23:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This three-pronged approach (none / 0)

is the model typical of civil rights movements - or, it has been for the African American and GLBT civil rights movements, anyway.  

Tensions do indeed arise:  NAACP vs Black Panthers; Human Rights Campaign vs Act Up, etc.

Not terribly unlike the environmental movement either, in fact - Sierra Club vs Earth First!

And while I don't mean to use "vs" in the traditional sense, there is/was/will always be a good bit of tension between the "use the system" groups and the "destroy the system" entities.


by aggieric on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 04:27:34 PM EST

Re: So, what happens in November? (1.00 / 1)

In November over one hundred million citizens will vote to revoke their 4th amandment rights. I won't be one of them.  And if Hillary doesn't oppose FISA, I'll never vote for her again.


by jrole on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 04:51:53 PM EST

Re: So, what happens in November? (none / 0)

Does the same standard apply to Senator Obama?


Hillary supporter for Barack Obama in 2008
by zcflint05 on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 07:31:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So, what happens in November? (none / 0)

Most definitely - I think I made that clear in my previous statement.


by jrole on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 07:41:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So, what happens in November? (2.00 / 1)

TO QUOTE J RO: I believe we are best served when we have lots of people in all 3 of these categories. A movement does not succeed without having all 3 kinds of people in place, each playing their part.

I ran across an FDR quote recently that seems to fit the general drift of the post:

In one situation, a group came to him urging specific actions in support of a cause in which they deeply believed.

He replied: I agree with you, I want to do it, now make me do it.

He understood that a President does not rule by fiat and unilateral commands to a nation. He must build the political support that makes his decisions acceptable to our countrymen.


by ttmiskovsky on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 05:54:21 PM EST

Re: So, what happens in November? (none / 0)

Well, that's me quoting Mike Lux, but yeah, I'm with you.


The Seminal :: Independent Media & Politics
by J Ro on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 05:56:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So, what happens in November? (none / 0)

Thanks for the quote from FDR.  It's what we have to do for Obama.


by hawkseye on Sun Jun 29, 2008 at 07:20:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So, what happens in November? (none / 0)

With dismal poll numbers showing Obama statistically tied in crucial states like Ohio, without Hillary on the ticket, what you'd like to happen may never happen.  In other words, don't count your victory chicks before they hatch.


by notime4lies on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 06:40:37 PM EST

Re: So, what happens in November? (none / 0)

Lets see... Ohio has been a swing state the last few elections...  Obama's average is 3-4 points...

Wow... You have NO IDEA WHAT THE HELL YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT....


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 11:28:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So, what happens in November? (none / 0)

November?  I think you are going a little overboard here.  Let the guy get actually SWORN IN.  Let the guy have 90 days to see what he does.  Do we honestly know if he won't pursue progressive ideals... many of his stances ARE progressive ideals.  YES, HE FUCKED UP on FISA.... but lets see where he goes.  If 90 is too much, at least give him 30.  Lets see what he does in the actual office before going to war on the guy.  


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Sat Jun 28, 2008 at 11:27:25 PM EST

Re: So, what happens in November? (none / 0)

The job of Progressives is to help elect a Progressive majority in congress.  We do not have that now.  Obama will have a difficult task bringing the country together.  

Progressives need to give up on either-or thinking and get accustomed to dealing with the various shades of grey.

Going to war with Obama soon after he is sworn in is not going to accomplish anything.

Electing more Progressives will.  

 


by hawkseye on Sun Jun 29, 2008 at 06:56:26 PM EST


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